Chiefs SB LVIII favorites; Patrick Mahomes for MVP

The Kansas City Chiefs begin the defense of their second Super Bowl title in four years on Thursday night, and they do so as the favorites to claim the Lombardi Trophy again come February.

The Chiefs are consensus +600 Super Bowl favorites to open the 2023 season, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes the favorite to claim his third NFL Most Valuable Player award.

Kansas City defeated Philadelphia in a dramatic 38-35 win in Super Bowl LVII seven months ago, and it’s the Eagles who begin this season as the Chiefs‘ closest rivals at sportsbooks. That includes Philadelphia being offered at +650 to win the Super Bowl by DraftKings, +750 by BetRivers and +800 by BetMGM.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are being offered at +900 by all three sportsbooks. The San Francisco 49ers are also +900 at BetRivers, while they are at +1000 at the other two.

BetRivers reported the Chiefs have been backed by the most money to win Super Bowl LVIII at 12.7 percent, while the Eagles lead the way with 15.2 percent of the total bets backing Philadelphia.

The Eagles opened at +900 at BetMGM but have seen their odds shorten to +800 with the public backing them with 9.1 percent of the total Super Bowl winner bets and 9.2 percent of the money — both among the top three at the book. However, that does not put Philadelphia among the book’s three biggest Super Bowl liabilities.

Those honors belong to Pittsburgh, Dallas and Detroit. The Steelers have drawn 4.3 percent of the money and are current +6600 longshots at BetMGM. The Cowboys have much shorter odds at +1500 and have been backed by 8.8 percent of the money. The Lions, who play at the Chiefs on Thursday night, have seen their odds shift since opening at +2500 and are being supported by 6.3 percent of the money.

Cincinnati, which opens at +1100, leads all teams with 9.4 percent of the total bets. The Bengals have also been popular at BetRivers, where they have drawn 10.2 percent of the Super Bowl bets and 8.8 percent of the money.

PATTY THRICE?

Mahomes, who will turn 28 on Sept. 17, won the MVP award in 2018 in addition to last year.

He is the +600 favorite by DraftKings to claim No. 3 this season, followed by the Bengals’ Joe Burrow (+750), the Bills’ Josh Allen (+850) and the Eagles‘ Jalen Hurts (+1100) in a market dominated by quarterbacks. The shortest odds at the book for a non-QB belong to 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey and Vikings wide receiver Jordan Jefferson at +8000.

Mahomes is also +600 at BetMGM, followed by Allen and Burrow at +800 and Hurts at +1100. However, it’s Hurts who leads the way with 16.4 percent of the total MVP bets made, while Burrow is tops with 14.5 percent of the money backing him. That’s compared to Mahomes at 10.9 and 13.5 percent, respectively.

Hurts is also the biggest liability at BetMGM, where he leads with 16.5 percent of the total bets at +1100 — up a tick since opening at +1000.

NO WINS IN THE CARDS?

On the opposite end of the spectrum sit the Arizona Cardinals, who have the longest Super Bowl odds at all three books — +25000 at BetRivers and +40000 at BetMGM and DraftKings.

Arizona winning fewer than five games has been one of the most popular future props at BetRivers, drawing 4.1 percent of the money wagered on the Team Win Totals market. It’s the only “under” among the top five.

Circa Sports took the Cardinals’ plight entering the 2023 season a step further.

The book is offering odds on whether the Cardinals will go winless across their 17-game schedule. “Yes” is being offered at +2200, while Arizona winning at least one game this season carries -3800 odds.

Circa is also offering a prop on which division the Super Bowl LVIII champion will come from.

—NFC East +390

—AFC North +425

—AFC West +450

—AFC East +450

—NFC West +510

—NFC North +790

—NFC South +1675

—AFC South +2100

—Field Level Media